When will the SMB1 Any% TAS be tied?

FRAMES LEFT 4WR 4:54.332TAS 4:54.265
WR4:54.332
TAS4:54.265
+0.067
FRAMES4
Predicted TAS tie
…
50%68% (±1σ)95% (±2σ)median

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Who ties it?

You get 3 guesses: one on Niftski, one on LeKukie, and one on someone else. Switching the pick updates the forecast above.

Niftski averaged 12.9 in his TAS-tie streams, Aug 14 to Sep 19.

9 of his 82 PB days fell here (3.8 expected). Default 118% is the Bayesian estimate.

Fitted from Niftski's 18 Any% PBs.

Above ×1.00, frames get harder near the TAS. Fitted jointly with improvement.

On: his pace rises and falls by month, busiest in May and Oct, slowest in Mar. Off: same pace every month.